![]() ![]() Most of this piece is going to be spent talking about what we can learn about the game from AI simulations exploring its fundamentals, which is more objective, but also limited in what we can say definitively.Īs I’ve played the game for 8+ years now myself, these are my high-level thoughts on real-life strategy.Īssume the game is won by Spies by default, and play accordingly.īased on the simulations conducted and my own experience, I believe that the Resistance team is at a significant disadvantage without taking advantage of the social aspects of the game. The complexity of the hidden information characters are trying to uncover and share can also be ratcheted up, as seen in the following diagram (this diagram skips the Morgana Spy role, which gives Percival another ambiguous option for who Merlin could be): Once you know a trap was planted with the expectation of being spotted, the obvious conclusion is that Henry leaked the statement on purpose to look like a Merlin trying to avoid suspicion, so Mark should not guess Henry as Merlin.īluff Level Sixteen : Mark starts with the initial conditions of the universe and quickly constructs a high fidelity simulation leading up until the present moment and deduces, perhaps incorrectly, that Henry was self-evidently planting a fifteen level-deep bluff to convince Mark that he was not Merlin, and that the winning play is to go sixteen levels deep and see through the bluff, so Mark correctly assassinates Henry for the win. This means both parties are aware that their counterpart knows that Henry planted the statement as a trap, meaning we can not be in Level Two, where one party hoped the other was unaware of the trap being set. ![]() Because the naïve interpretation of the statement makes it less likely Henry is Merlin, he must actually be Merlin trying to pretend to have different reasons than his actual reasons, so Mark should guess Henry as Merlin.īluff Level Three : Henry correctly deduces that Mark would not believe that Henry would make a mistake like Level One, and also deduces that Mark would correctly deduce that Henry would expect him to see the action as deliberate. ![]() īluff Level One : Henry could have genuinely forgotten he shouldn't talk in the endgame when it can only help the Spies guess who Merlin is, and accidentally made an admission that only a non-Merlin player would make, so Mark should conclude Henry is not Merlin.īluff Level Two : Henry correctly deduced that Mark would not believe for a minute that Henry would make a mistake like Level One, therefore Henry must have made the statement on purpose. oh shoot, I shouldn't talk to help the Spies." This is, of course, a classic Merlin quadruple-bluff gambit. Henry blurts out: "Oh, actually the reason I did that was because. Mark mentions to the other Spies that Henry went out of his way to avoid having him on a team, and a battle of wits begins. Mark is the Assassin, trying to guess the identity of the character Merlin at the end of the game, who knew all the Spies. It leads to great mind-games like the following recent game I played: You can add incremental complexity with extra roles to make the game more interesting, see the knowledge graph below Merlin knows the Spies and is trying to help the other Resistance players identify them, but if the Assassin can guess which player is Merlin at the end, the Spies still win. With the Merlin/Assassin variant in Avalon, both teams have something to hide and something to figure out, even if your identity is known you can still be trying to solve the puzzle up until the last minute. Unlike Mafia/Werewolf, there’s no player elimination you’re in until the end of the game You can find Avalon’s rules here, I would advise watching at least one game on video to get a sense for how it plays out if you haven’t played a comparable game before.Īvalon has a few great properties that blow the competition away:
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